Royals' surprise ace may regress slightly, but don't look for his numbers to crash

When the Kansas City Royals signed pitcher Seth Lugo to a three-year, $45 million deal (with the third season a player option) in mid-December, they were looking for a solid, consistent, steadying veteran presence for their dilapidated rotation. What they got was a prime candidate for the Cy Young award through the first quarter of the season. 

Lugo has been remarkable so far. He ranks first in the American League in innings pitched with 59 2/3, wins with six and ERA at 1.66. He struck out only 14 batters in his first five starts, but has 34 punchouts in his last four outings, including a career-high 12 in his last outing, an eight-inning, one-run gem against the Los Angeles Angels. As an added bonus, he has issued only 12 walks in 2024. 

It is not reasonable to expect some regressions. The season is a long one and bad outings will happen here and there. Plus, there has been a bit of good luck involved in his early-season success. He has stranded runners at a 90.2% clip, whereas the league average is around 70%. 

Occasionally,  a reliever might have a stretch (or even a season), with a strand rate that high, but starters tend to trend toward the norm as the season progresses and innings pile up. Still, if Lugo can maintain the higher strikeout rates that he has put up over the last four games and continue to work out of trouble, he can still be a very successful pitcher the rest of the year. 

It will be interesting to see if Lugo will settle into the set of numbers he put up early as far as strikeouts go or if he turned a corner and can maintain strikeouts at a rate he's done of late. The 34-year-old right-hander spent most of his career as a reliever for the Mets and his K/9 was over 10.6 in each season from 2019-21. While it is more difficult to maintain those numbers as a starter, Lugo does have a history that shows the skill set. 

Even if the strikeouts ultimately even out into something between his early season numbers and his more recent stats and even if his strand rate regresses somewhat, Lugo can still be a top-tier pitcher for the Royals. He has been unflappable on the mound and he throws six pitches, which is more than enough to keep hitters off-balance. 

If Lugo just pitches to his Expected ERA (3.52), he will have to be considered a success. The Royals took a chance by giving him a two-year deal with a shot at an additional year and he is rewarding their confidence. Chances are he won't win the Cy Young, but the Royals don't need him to. They just need him to be the leader of that rotation. He's been a fine fit so far.