MacKinnon vs. McDavid and the five biggest NHL storylines to watch in April

Last season, Connor McDavid’s historic scoring binge and the Boston Bruins’ record-breaking points total took away some of the intrigue of the regular season; the races for the Presidents’ Trophy, a host of individual awards won by Bruins, and the Hart Trophy were determined by January.

The 2023-24 home stretch is a much different story.

The quest for the Art Ross Trophy (and perhaps the MVP) has turned into a three-way race between Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, and McDavid. The top seven teams in the NHL are separated by five points or fewer, and each of the four division titles is up for grabs with just weeks left to play. There are dozens of significant storylines to monitor; these are five of the biggest.

Has Thatcher Demko’s injury exposed Vancouver?

The Vancouver Canucks are an excellent hockey team. Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek are one of the top defensive pairs in the NHL, centers Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller both have shots at 100 points, and versatile forwards like Pius Suter and Dakota Joshua give their lineup tons of flexibility. Even so, Vancouver’s major turnaround has relied somewhat on luck; their league-best +57 goal differential more than doubles their expected cushion of around 19 goals thanks to a league-high shooting percentage (12.2%) and Thatcher Demko’s heroics in goal. The former Boston College standout will be a Vezina Trophy contender when it’s time to vote in late April, but since his injury on March 9, the ‘Nucks are 0-3-1 against playoff teams. Cynics have been waiting for the Vancouver bubble to burst since November. Is it finally happening?

Probably not; no team would be unfazed by an injury to a player of Demko’s (2.47 GAA, .917 SV%) caliber, and there’s every indication he’ll be back in plenty of time for the first round. Still, their struggles with Casey DeSmith in goal raise questions over their viability in a stacked Western Conference. DeSmith has played at a league-average level (2.71 GAA, .901 SV%) and is responsible for 13 of the team’s 28 defeats in only 24 starts. Considering the level of play other top teams have gotten from their backup goaltenders – Anthony Stolarz in Florida, Jonathan Quick of the New York Rangers, and even Edmonton Oilers’ journeyman Cal Pickard – it’s fair to wonder whether DeSmith is a drag on the Canucks’ results, or Demko has been covering for a good-not-great team.

The 28-year-old is eligible to return for an April 6 date with the Los Angeles Kings, but given his robust injury history, there’s no guarantee coach Rick Tocchet will rush him back into action. With five of their nine remaining games against playoff teams, can the Canucks hold off an Oilers outfit that would come within two points of the division lead by winning their game in hand? Their last regular season meeting is on April 13, and both clubs are in play for the No. 1 seed in the West.

Panthers’ slide highlights questionable coaching moves

The Florida Panthers felt trading for Vladimir Tarasenko put them in the driver’s seat for a second-consecutive Wales Trophy. The Cats already had two superstars (Barkov, Tkachuk) before Sam Reinhart transformed into Brett Hull. Sniper Carter Verhaeghe and power forward Sam Bennett brought their number of impact forwards to five, but the Panthers needed one more to round out a lethal top six: Tarasenko. If he was the final puzzle piece, it’s especially concerning that Florida has lost six of its last eight.

Perhaps coach Paul Maurice has tried too hard to integrate his newest player. The veteran bench boss dropped Tarasenko onto the Barkov line opposite Reinhart, reuniting Verhaeghe, Bennett, and Tkachuk on a dangerous second unit and ending the top-six Nick Cousins experiment. The aging Russian brought down Barkov and Reinhart’s usually dominant chance shares, though, so Maurice promoted defensive maestro Evan Rodrigues onto his captain’s wing … in place of Reinhart. The modified line has played well over the past few games, but deploying a 50-goal scorer as the third center to accommodate a considerably diminished player is a classic overthink.

Rodrigues, Barkov, and Reinhart have outscored the bad guys 27-10 at even strength on the year while dominating every conceivable metric. There’s your top line. By tailoring his lineup to get the best out of Tarasenko specifically, Maurice is not seeing the forest for the trees. That’s unlike him; his laissez-faire style became an issue in Winnipeg but was a big part of last year’s adrenaline-fueled playoff charge. The Blues legend is scoring at a respectable level (4G, 6P in 11GP), but no amount of tinkering will transform him into the superstar he was throughout the 2010s. If the Panthers are going to capitalize on a weak schedule to catch the Bruins in the Atlantic Division, they need to lean on their best players in the here and now.

Can Connor McDavid gatecrash Nathan MacKinnon’s coronation?

Since his ascendancy to superstardom during the 2017-18 season, Nathan MacKinnon is second in the NHL in assists, third in total points, and third in per-game scoring. Only Connor McDavid leads him in all three categories. A scuffling start for McDavid and his Oilers opened the door for MacKinnon to stop him from winning a fourth Hart Trophy and sixth Art Ross, but the Edmonton captain has gone on to make history all the same; he will likely become the fourth player in NHL history with a 100-assist season in the coming days, and trails MacKinnon (127P) for the league lead by just two points. Can McDavid rain on the three-time Hart finalist’s parade once more?

It’s not a two-horse race. Nikita Kucherov (42G, 126P) has carried the Tampa Bay Lightning to the playoffs. But McDavid and MacKinnon’s unspoken rivalry makes them the matchup to watch when awards season commences. McDavid’s league-best playmaking has somehow reached new heights, and he is in the thick of the Art Ross race with outrageous numbers in March (19 points in his last seven games); he could finish first in scoring without being a top-30 goalscorer (29G in 70GP). MacKinnon, meanwhile, is on pace for his first 50-goal season, plays the second-most minutes of any forward behind linemate Mikko Rantanen, and leads the NHL in shots on goal for the third time. He’s the sledgehammer to McDavid’s scalpel, and if MacKinnon can lock up the Art Ross, his nose for the goal and newfound commitment to defense (64 blocked shots) could carry the day.

Born 14 months apart and linked by their otherworldly skating ability and similar surnames, each player makes a compelling case as the league’s best in 2023-24. While the actual MVP votes will be cast before the postseason begins, a rematch of the 2022 Western Conference Final, when the Avs overwhelmed the Oilers in four games, could go a long way toward settling the issue unofficially.

Who will take control of the remaining Eastern Conference playoff spots?

On March 1, the Philadelphia Flyers and Detroit Red Wings were at least five points clear of their nearest rivals for the Eastern Conference Wild Card and third place in the Metropolitan Division, respectively. The Washington Capitals, 9-5-1 over the past month, have surged past the free-falling Wings (3-9-2 since March 1) and the injury-ravaged Flyers since then. The three deeply flawed teams would not have expected to play meaningful hockey this deep into 2024, but disastrous campaigns from the Pittsburgh Penguins, New Jersey Devils, and Buffalo Sabres have left the door to the postseason wide open. Now, with precious few games left, two of them must overcome their ample shortcomings to return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Red Wings positioned themselves for a playoff push by going 16-5-2 over the first two months of 2024, but a league-best 13% conversion rate and excellent goaltending (.914 SV%) covered for their wide-open style. Without elite scoring (2.21 G/GP since March 1) or Alex Lyon (4.03 GAA, 0-7-2 GAA since March 1) to prop them up, things have come unraveled in the Motor City. The Capitals are arguably the best of the bad bunch because of their ability to gut out close wins and Alex Ovechkin’s long-awaited heater (17G in his last 26GP). Still, they’re -30 on the year and play the Hurricanes, Bruins, and Lightning before a potentially vital season finale in Philly. The rival Flyers, meanwhile, play just one playoff team (NYR) in their final seven games. With Nick Seeler, the team leader in blocks (185) and rating (15), back for the homestretch, maybe they can tighten up their suddenly porous defense (3.44 team GAA since Feb. 1) in time to end a three-season playoff drought.

None of these teams should have a prayer against the likes of the Rangers or the Bruins, but unpredictability is what makes the Stanley Cup Playoffs so engrossing. Imagine the bedlam if a bonafide title contender falls to a Capitals team that leans heavily on longtime AHL goalie Charlie Lindgren (21-13-6, .911 SV%), a Red Wings outfit whose best player is arguably 34-year-old Patrick Kane (41P in 42GP), or a Flyers squad that plays castaways like Seeler and Ryan Poehling in key roles. They have to make it to the dance first.

It’s deja vu all over again in Winnipeg

The Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars traded blows in the race for the Central during the first half of the 2022-23 season before the former limped to a 23-20-2 record after the New Year, and the Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche comfortably lapped them. This year, after unexpectedly doubling down on team legends Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck and parting ways with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Blake Wheeler, the Jets looked like a refreshed team; they came into March fourth in points percentage and first in team defense. Since then, they’ve reverted to type: team morale has collapsed, Scheifele and Kyle Connor are not holding up their end on the back check, and, after a six-game skid, Winnipeg faces an uphill battle for home ice in the first round.

The Jets are still within seven points of the division lead, and their goaltending, forward depth, and Josh Morrissey’s emergence as a two-way star on defense mean they can heat up again. Winnipeg has matchups with the Avalanche, Predators, and Stars left and can reestablish their playoff standing with a strong finish. On the downside, those are tough outs, and coach Rick Bowness has been reluctant to address his top line’s putrid defense. Connor and Scheifele control just 46% of expected goals together (36.91% with the returning Gabe Vilardi) and break even apart. How can they play against the Nathan MacKinnon or Jack Eichel lines? Bowness doesn’t want to split up Adam Lowry and Sean Monahan’s productive units, but stubbornness at the top of the lineup is a luxury he cannot afford.

Winnipeg fans have seen seemingly competitive teams fall apart too often not to panic at their latest skid, and what looked like their best chance at the Stanley Cup since 2018 is quickly turning into a nightmare. The Western Conference is a snake pit, and as it stands, the Jets might be the team everyone wants to see in the playoffs. They have eight games left to make prospective opponents believe they’re a legitimate threat, but it’s unclear whether they themselves believe that.